• Previous model set: states merged heuristically - _eh_f has 17 states ;
  • log likelihood = -3210.14

  • BIC score = -1477515.95

• New model set: same as previous model but with the revised _eh_f model - 24 states
  • average log likelihood = -2889.49

  • BIC score = -1332012.90

• Both models given four reestimation passes on the training data

• Scores computed closed-loop